Shalom Hartman Institute

Speaker Background

• Former Arab affairs reporter for The Times of Israel; transitioned to rabbinical work and teaching.
• Since October 7th, frequently appears on Arab media as a commentator.
• Highlights the changed regional media landscape (e.g., Israeli commentators on Syrian TV).

The Domino Effect Post-October 7th

• The attack by Hamas triggered a regional conflict, now involving up to seven fronts: Gaza, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, Yemen (Houthis), Iran, Iraqi militias, and potentially more.
• All these fronts are in some way linked to Iran.

Analytical Frameworks

1. The Shia Crescent
   
   • Coined by Jordan’s King Abdullah II, describes a crescent-shaped region of Shia-majority or Shia-ruled countries: Lebanon, Syria (Alawite minority), Iraq, Iran, with significant Shia populations in Kuwait and Bahrain.
   • This lens emphasizes religious affiliation as a driver of alliances, pitting Shia-aligned states (with Iran as the core) against Sunni-majority states.
2. Axis of Resistance (mihwar al-muqawwama)
   
   • An ideological alliance (not strictly religious) of actors opposing the US, Israel, and Western influence: Iran, Syria (Assad), Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and PFLP.
   • Crosses sectarian lines: Sunni and Shia groups cooperate against Israel.
   • Relationships are pragmatic—alliances shift with changing priorities (e.g., Hamas leaving/returning to Damascus during/after the Syrian civil war).

Key Actors and Their Roles

Hamas

• Origin: Palestinian offshoot of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (founded 1988).
• Dual identity: Islamic resistance movement and authentic Palestinian nationalist group.
• Charter blends religious and nationalist aims; opposes PLO’s normalization with Israel.

Hezbollah

• Shia group in Lebanon, founded in response to Israeli invasion (1982).
• Closely aligned with Iran; doctrinally and politically follows Iranian leadership.
• Notably, has refrained from joining the current Iran-Israel conflict, possibly for political or pragmatic reasons.

Houthis (Ansar Allah)

• Yemeni Shia (Zaidi) movement, emerged in the 1990s.
• Fiercely anti-US, anti-Israel, and openly anti-Semitic (see official slogan).
• Responsible for expelling Yemen’s Jewish population.

Iran (Islamic Republic)

• Became an Islamic theocracy after the 1979 revolution ousted the Shah.
• Multi-ethnic, but Shia Islam is dominant; led by Supreme Leader (currently Khamenei).
• Central to regional proxy network; regime change in Iran seen by some in Israel as the key to regional peace.

Normalization with Israel: Monarchies vs. Republics

• Of five Arab states normalizing with Israel, four are monarchies (Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain, UAE); Egypt is the only republic.
• Monarchies can act with greater autonomy due to less public accountability; republics are more constrained by public opinion.
• The Arab Peace Initiative (led by Saudi Arabia) previously offered normalization in exchange for Israeli territorial concessions, but Israel achieved partial normalization without such concessions.
• Wider normalization may require Israeli movement toward a two-state solution and ending the Gaza war.

Current and Future Regional Dynamics

Open Questions

• Fate of hostages in Gaza and the outcome of the ongoing war with Hamas.
• Impact of potential regime change in Iran or Syria on regional stability and Israel’s security.
• Role of US policy (specifically the Trump administration) in shaping outcomes.

Israeli Objectives and Ambiguities

• Initial goals: destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, disrupt support for proxies.
• Unofficial goal: regime change in Iran, as suggested by recent Israeli rhetoric and actions.
• No clear consensus or plan for post-war Gaza; deep divisions within Israeli society on what constitutes “victory.”

Societal and Psychological Factors

Arab Public Opinion

• Ambivalence prevails: many Arab leaders privately support Israel but face public opposition due to solidarity with Palestinians.
• Normalization is easier when Israel is seen as seeking peace with Palestinians.

Empathy and Trauma

• Some Palestinians express empathy for Israeli suffering post-October 7th, though war and trauma on both sides limit mutual understanding.
• Reconciliation and normalization will require time, cessation of hostilities, and healing.

Conclusion

• The region is at a historic crossroads, with opportunities for dramatic change if major obstacles (notably the Iranian regime and the Gaza conflict) are addressed.
• Speaker expresses hope for rapid, positive transformation, drawing parallels to the swift normalization with the UAE after the Abraham Accords.
• Ongoing war and unresolved issues mean the situation remains highly fluid and unpredictable.

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Bio

Rabbi Elhanan Miller is founder of People of the Book, an initiative that harnesses the reach of social media to educate a younger generation of Arabs curious about Jewish faith and culture. A language specialist, he completed his BA (cum laude) and MA degrees in Middle East History and Islamic Studies at Hebrew University, and has served as the Arab Affairs Reporter for The Times of Israel. AJerusalem native, he regularly comments on Israeli politics on international Arabic news channels including BBC Arabic, Sky News Arabia, and Israel’s public broadcaster, Kan. His opinion articles have appeared in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

He completed research on Palestinian politics as an Atkin Fellow at Kings College, London, and was the Richard Beeston scholar at the foreign desk of The London Times. Most recently, he served as the rabbi of the Jewish community in Canberra, the Australian capital, while studying for Orthodox rabbinic ordination at Beit Midrash Harel.